"20K in the Dome? I can dig it."
Photo Courtesy of Mouthpeicesports.com
I've been asked several times the last few days on the likelihood and % chance that we reach 20,000 in average attendance. I’ve decided to throw my thoughts together as it seems that Football Withdrawal has officially taken hold. Like one of my favorite sports interviewees, Shaquille O’Neal said, “I’m not an Odds-Matician.”
First, our attendance average this season for 7 games was 16,750.
Let me stop right there. That's tremendous. How tremendous? That's a better average than 13 FBS programs.
The soft season ticket renewal has already begun (if you haven't received a call, call the ticket office and they'd be glad to assist you) and full season ticket renewal will begin in January.
So what's the magic formula? If you are looking for that, you won't find it here. I don't have that. What I do have is my thoughts on what is possible in 2011.
We will graduate an estimated 3000 students in total in our December and April commencement ceremonies. These all become potential ticket purchasers at a minimum of $72 per ticket for the season or $15 per ticket for individual single games. I'll aim extremely conservative and say we grab 10% of these new grads. That's 300 new season ticket holders.
We will enroll an estimated 2000 transfer students (including many this January) who will be entering in the beginnings of Year 2. Again, conservatively I'll say we can attract 15% giving us 300 in the student section.
It's estimated that more than 3500 freshman will arrive on campus in August to begin classes. Using my 10% model again, let's add 350 additional bodies into the Georgia Dome next season.
A little further outside the campus lines, our season ticket base, which is currently more than 5500, is to increase and I'll again be very conservative and say 10%. That would be a additional 550 season ticket holders.
Average fan interest is extremely hard to judge. How big of impact did the Alabama game resonate in potential donors/season ticket holders? Nearly impossible to register but I will stay conservative and say that we receive an additional 1,500 fans per game next season by this factor alone.
Last, but not least, is adding local players. We are expected to sign a very small class (currently would be 8 or 9 and could blossom to 10 to 12 with attrition) but the adding of the family members alone from those 8-12 players could result in an extra 25 fans in the building.
So let's total my projections up and you have an increase of 3,725 in attendance giving us a total of 20,475. That would push us over 20K and would move us from 9th to 4th in all of FCS in only 2 years of existence. Could we achieve this? Yes. Will we? That remains to be seen.
Do recent grads still get to go to two years of games for free? That was the deal for grads from 2008/2009 as they were paying football fees before the team began playing
ReplyDeleteI'd have to verify but I do believe they get the opportunity. I believe that group may be split down the middle of wanting to hang out with the students (companion sales) and those who want to get tix of their own.
ReplyDeleteI agree with most of your thoughts on this matter and think you were conservative with most of your estimations. The only part in here that isn't considered is the fact that the first game had an attendance of over 30,000 people. Will the first game next year have a large crowd (especially if its on a Thursday night)? Sure. But I'd have to think it wont quite that many. Anyway, my point is that taking that 30,000 game out of the average drops the number a good bit and therefore gives us a lower starting point when looking at where we were this year going up against next season.
ReplyDeleteI'm hopeful we can do it...we'll see. Go Panthers!
i would love to see it, but these numbers are incredibly skewed. you didn't take into account the hit from student attendance from graduates. Yes those are new potential season ticket holders (myself included) but there will also a dropoff in student attendance as a result.
ReplyDeleteYou also added to a skewed average. The first game drew 30,000 which greatly increased our average attendance. Many of those students and fans never came back. Our average should have been down closer to 13,000, if that much.
Again, would love to see it, but i am afraid you are being too optimistic. I am guessing an opening game crowd of probably 20,000 and an immediate drop off from there back down to the 12-14,000 range.
Now... if the team does well, which i suspect they will, then you could see a surge towards the end of the season. Atlanta is a city that is always hungry for football. Just look at how many high school football stadiums are packed on Fridays. If we give them a winner and a team that could possibly be in the hunt for an at large playoff berth, the city will reward us by coming to the games...
I also saw the Houston post. I personally love it. I have grown up a Gator fan because my dad went to UF for undergrad, but he went to Houston for his masters. This will be a fun game for us to cheer against each other after cheering on the Gators together at every home game in Gainesville my entire life. We are already planning to fly out there, which if it's the 24th of september, thats Tennessee weekend... and we don't even care. GO PANTHERS.
One more thing... could you possibly put a post up telling us how much of the schedule you have confirmed? I saw that GSU doesn't plan to release it until after the new year. Just curious where we stand thus far.
This alum (class of 91) was only mildly interested in the football team at the start of the season. Over the course of the season, I became a fan. I plan to buy my season tix and look forward to attending the panther home games.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, the key will be success on the field. We need to beat some real competition this coming year. I look forward to the ODU game, particularly.
Chris, Valid points. I agree the Shorter game was an illusion but so was the Lambuth game. I've heard the word "Football Fatigue" thrown around and playing 3 games at home in a row for 2 stretches makes it tough.
ReplyDeleteTo give you an idea of our attendance average without the outliers (highest and lowest) it would be just under 15,000. Again, ask our athletic department what they needed to balance the budget and they said 10,000. We exceeded every expectation.
I think there is no chance that we lose students for next year. None. If anything, students have one more year to understand what this football thing is all about and make plans to attend more games. This is called building tradition. The Georgia Dome will be the place to be on Saturdays (and an occasional Thursday).
As far as the schedule goes, it's extremely fluid right now and things should clear up more towards the end of the month. I'll just say this, there are only about 10 people who know what the 2011 schedule looks like and I'm not one of them.
AJG, thanks for finding the blog and I'm so glad you found the team. It's hard not to like this team, the coaching staff and Coach Curry.
ReplyDeleteI agree that success on the field always trumps everything else. You can sell as many tickets, shirts, hats and whatever else but if we don't win a game, it will be much harder to build the way we all want.