Veterans Memorial Park @ James Madison University This weekend's series features the expected 1st and 2nd place finishers in the CAA baseball standings for 2011 and will be a battle of the leagues best two offenses. The Panthers travel up to Virginia to take on the James Madison Dukes baseball team. With 3 out of 10 CAA series in the books for the season and a 5-4 record after such, this series is a must win series for the Panthers. The Dukes are tied for the lead in the CAA with a 10-5 record (.667 winning %). Of the five teams ahead of Georgia State (JMU, Delaware, UNCW, W&M and ODU) 4 including JMU are on the remaining schedule. This is good news because the Panthers have some control over their own destiny. It will take a series sweep for the Panthers to jump ahead of JMU in the standings.
Who: The James Madison University Dukes compete along with Georgia State in the CAA. They enter the series with a 21-9 record and 10-5 in the CAA. JMU returned 5 everyday starters from their 2010 team that finished 30-23 and 1st in the CAA at 18-6. A .750 CAA winning percentage will be tough to obtain as they would have to win 13 of the remaining 15 CAA games. With GSU, Delaware and UNCW on the schedule, I don't see this happening.
History/Common Opponents: JMU leads the all-time series by a dominate 14-2 advantage. Coach Frady has not been able to crack JMU as he's only 1-8 against them while at Georgia State with the lone win coming at home in Panthersville. GSU and JMU share 1 common opponent so far on the season, VCU. The Panthers lost 2-of-3 at home against VCU by scores of 11-8 (win), 6-10 (loss) and 8-17 (loss). The Dukes won 2-of-3 at home against VCU by scores of 12-8 (win), 2-4 (loss) and 4-1 (win). The Panthers scored more runs than JMU did against VCU however they also allowed more runs than JMU.
James Madison at the Plate: JMU enters the series 4th in NCAA team batting average, 2nd in runs scored (10.5 per game) and 1st in home runs and home runs per game. The Dukes are led offensively by 2010 standouts David Herbek (SS), Jake Lowery (C) and Alex Foltz (OF) whom all three are slugging over .600. David is hitting .385 with 12 home runs and slugging .812. He is 2nd on the team with 42 RBIs. Jake is hitting .379 with 16 home runs and 49 RBIs with a .911 slugging percentage. Alex hits .378 with 6 home runs and 22 RBIs, slugging .671. The Dukes have 58 home runs and are slugging .596 as a team, batting .338. Not only does the team have power but they have speed as well. They are 97-for-115 (85%) for stolen bases which is best in the CAA (and NCAA) over Georgia State by 34 stolen bases.
With all that said, this offense was only able to put up 16 runs in 3 games versus William & Mary one month ago. Georgia State and William & Mary are the CAA's leading pitching staffs and are very similar statistically. More on this in the pitching preview.
James Madison on the Mound: To say a team with a 21-9 record has a weakness sounds crazy, but pitching is the Duke's weakness. They are 2nd to last in the league with a 6.67 ERA and are allowing 7 runs per game. JMU pitching has allowed opposing batters a .284 average and have a WHIP of 1.7 which is tied for 2nd highest in the CAA. One of the major issues for JMU has been walks allowed. They are giving batters a free base nearly 6 times per game this season.
Weekend starters as follows:
Alex Valadja (Sr., LH) - Alex is 3-2 with a 7.50 ERA in 7 starts. He's pitched 42 innings and allowed 36 runs on 51 hits and 20 walks (WHIP 1.7). Opposing batters are hitting .304 against him and he's allowed 6 home runs. Alex pitched 7 innings and received the loss against VCU after allowing 4 runs off 7 hits and 3 walks. He threw 125 pitches in the outing so coach isn't afraid to leave him out there while he's pitching well. VCU score 1 run in the 2nd and 3rd and then he coasted until the 8th inning.
D.J. Brown (So., RH) - DJ is 4-0 with a 5.91 ERA in 7 starts. Similar numbers to Alex only he's allowed 16 walks and batters are hitting .293 against him. He's a strikeout threat with almost 1 per inning thus far. DJ pitched a complete game against VCU and earned the win while allowing only 1 run (unearned).
Evan Scott (Jr., RH) - Evan is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA after 7 starts. Evan has had walk issues this season allowing 34 free bases in 38.1 innings pitched. However, batters are hitting just .231 against him. His numbers output a 1.7 WHIP. Evan pitched 4.2 innings against VCU and allowed 3 runs (all earned) off 3 hits and 3 walks.
The JMU relief staff has been more a weakness than the starters. They don't have a shut-down reliever so runs are possible after knocking out the starter. Their most effective reliever so far has been Trent Cundiff who's appeared in 10 games going 12.2 innings and allowed 8 runs. He has a 4.97 ERA and batters are .298 against him. The other go-to guys are Josh Futter (5.23 ERA), James Weiner (5.32 ERA) and Nick Slogik (5.91 ERA). The 7th inning has not been friendly to the pitching staff as that's their highest run total allowed with 32 runs allowed.
GSU at the Plate: The Panthers offense enters with a .319 team batting average and is tied for 2nd in the NCAA in doubles and 6th in runs scored. The offense is scoring almost 8 runs per game this season. Brett Maxwell and Brandon Williams still lead the team with a .408 and .386 batting average. Brett is slugging .602 and leads the team with 13 doubles on the year and a .492 on-base percentage. Mark Micowski is hitting .354 with 25 RBIs and Ryan Fleming is leading the team with 9 home runs and 35 RBIs. Joey Wood has been out with a minor back injury and was missed in the Delaware series, I'm trying to confirm his status for this weekend.
GSU on the Mound: The Panthers still have one of the best pitching staffs in the CAA. The team ERA of 4.40 is good for 2nd, behind W&M at 4.24. The Panthers are allowing 5.25 runs per game and opponents are hitting .270 against them. Weekend rotation as follows:
Will Campbell (Sr., RH) - Will gets a shot at the weekend rotation here giving Aidan Francis the chance to be used as a relief pitcher. Will takes the mound Friday with a CAA best 6-0 record. He is one of just 19 pitchers in the NCAA with 6 wins and one of just 13 with at least a 6-0 record. Will has 2.90 ERA and opposing batters have been dumbfounded at the plate hitting only .180 against him. His WHIP is currently 0.89.
Charley Olson (Sr., RH) - Charley has a 2-3 record yet just a 3.72 ERA. Charley has been plagued by lack of offensive support and defensive miscues. He is striking out almost 1 batter per inning and has allowed only 10 walks. Charley's WHIP is 1.34. Charley had a good outing against VCU going 6 innings and allowing only 2 earned runs however 4 runs were scored due to 5 Georgia State errors. He allowed just 1 walk and struck out 8 in the game. His last outing at Delaware was another that should have resulted in a win yet he was stuck with the loss after going 7 innings and allowing 5 runs (4 earned) due to 4 errors behind him. He walked just 1 and struck out 6.
Justin Malone (Jr., RH) - Justin will take the tail-end of the weekend with a 5-0 record. His ERA is 3.99 but batters have caught on to him recently as they're now .327 against him. He's struggled a little as of lately but had a decent game at Delaware. He went 5.2 innings allowing only 3 runs (2 earned) with no walks and 7 strikeouts. Justin has shown excellent command in his pitches this season as he's allowed just 7 walks in 38.1 innings. Even though Justin has had some shaky outings (against arguably good offenses) recently the Panthers are still 6-1 in the games he's started.
This is a tough series to call. It's a powerful and fast offense vs. great pitching (JMU vs. GSU) and a greatly efficient and relatively less powerful and fast offense vs. league low pitching. More times than not good pitching wins the battle against good hitting. William & Mary showed that good pitching can calm the offensive giant known as JMU. They allowed only 16 runs to the JMU bats and could have taken the series but they didn't (and still don't) have a good offense. They were able to score only 11 runs against the same group of starters we'll see this weekend. The Dukes scored 10 of their 16 runs in the final 3 innings against poor relievers so the W&M starters did a great job at keeping JMU at bay. We have equal if not better starters going against JMU this weekend so I expect at least the same by us.
I love the fact that Frady is giving Campbell the start today. He has earned it and Aidan needs a game to rest his head and start having fun again. I'm sure he'll still pitch in the series in a relief role.
Georgia State is still the "complete package" in the CAA with VCU and UNC Wilmingon being the next closest thing to it. On paper, GSU should be able to score more in this series than JMU because we both have good offenses but we're by far the better pitching team. Our pitching bests theirs by a bigger margin than their offense bests ours. Last note here will be about defense. Our infield absolutely must play clean baseball. They committed 6 errors against VCU and 5 against Delaware. You cannot give this JMU offense that many free passes here.
We need 2-of-3 here but that still won't put us back above JMU, a sweep is the only way to do that this weekend. Winning less than two is not an option. Go get 'em boys. GO PANTHERS!!!
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