Monday, March 7, 2011

Men's Basketball: Evaluating the Roster

Imagine Buck at 220lbs and with range out to 10 feet
Photo Courtesy of GSU Sports Communications

So, we've arrived at the end of our men's basketball season and we were actually the 3rd Division 1 team from the state of Georgia still playing because we made it to Saturday.  We aren't likely to get a banner for that. 

What We Do Know:
Seniors Marques Johnson and Dante Curry have exhausted their eligibility and will move on.  The two combined for 11.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.  They also represented 59 3 point baskets made (Curry responsible for 53 of those).  While both players played significantly in their two year Panther careers, neither is what I'd qualify as an Impact Player.  Both struggled mightily in long stretches this season and I really thought I was dead wrong in classifying Curry as a bust prior to the season when he looked like a bonafide MVP candidate in January.  Johnson was his usual self, running the offensive sets, not scoring much and generally playing average to above average defense.

Returning Starters:
We used 15 different starting lineups this seasons adding the sometimes chaotic nature that Coach Rod Barnes was criticized for.  In 2011-12, we are slated to return 4 starters from the George Mason CAA Tournament game in James Fields, Jihad Ali, Josh Micheaux and Eric Buckner.  While each does contribute in different ways, I'd describe Micheaux and Buckner as Impact Players. 

C Eric Buckner - Was our best player from Game 1 to Game 31.  Averaged 9.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  Buck did deal with foul trouble almost every game this season and averaged 3.1 per game for the year (highest on the team).  Part of this, I believe was assimilating into the speed of Division 1 basketball vs. JUCO and part is he gained significant weight since his arrival that he had trouble adjusting (he arrived on campus around 190lbs and was playing at about 208lbs).  I look for another offseason packing on muscle and hope to see him at about 218-222 entering Fall practice.

SF Josh Micheaux - I believe he is an Impact Player based on his production as a Starter.  While he is very undersized playing as a PF, Josh played very well the last 1/3 of the year.  In 10 games as a starter, Micheaux averaged 9.5 points  (on 42% shooting), 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2 steals per game.  That's effective and the kind of stats you need from a starter.  If Josh can improve his 15-18 foot jumpshot in the offseason, I truly believe he can be a force as a Senior in 2011-12.

SF Jihad Ali - Recovered from an awful start of the season to increase his overall production and become a contributor.  Averaged 7.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.1 assist per game this season.  Jihad has a shot of breaking the all time games played record if he can stay healthy.  I think he has a 50/50 shot to start as a Senior but will have to continue to improve his shooting to justify that spot.

SG James Fields - Our Bruce Bowen.  While some Panther fans don't value Boom, I do.  He is rarely out of position and you know exactly what you'll get on a nightly basis:  Good defense.  He increased his scoring this season to 5.5 points per contest and actually was our most effective ball handler with a 1.47/1 assist-to-turnover margin, which was second on the team behind Marques Johnson.  I expect Fields to increase his scoring, cross the 100 steal plateau and reach 120 games played next season.

Returning Bench Players:
PG Devonta White - The Spark Plug. Was playing at a very high level prior to an ankle injury at home vs. VCU.  He truly wasn't the same player but you could see the spark in the team's energy level when he was on the floor.  For those who have played the game of basketball, your PG is your general and when you have a great floor leader you tend to play better.  It works in every level.  Overall, White 5.2 points, 2.3 assists and was the team's 3rd best FT shooter at 68.6%.  I could absolutely see his scoring and assists numbers double in 2011-12 as he increases his strength and better understands the speed of the game.

PF Brandon McGee - Consistently inconsistent.  This was the knock on McGee coming in and he lived up to the billing.  10 double digit scoring efforts in 2010-11 topped by a 31 point explosion at home vs. Northeastern were balanced by 5 games with 0 points.  His minutes flunctuated nearly all year and Coach Barnes had an extremely quick hook if it looked like McGee was coasting.  He has the talent to be an All-CAA performer.  He has the effort that makes fans absolutely mad.  If our new coach can keep McGee motivated, I could see an improvement of his 7.7 point and 3.1 rebound per game averages.

SG Javonte Maynor - Huge growth potential.  Hidden in Maynor's decent Freshman campaign of 5.8 points (and a team leading 38.8% from 3 point range) and 1.1 rebounds per game, is the fact that he actually led our team in scoring 3 seperate times this year.  I believe he could be an outside shot to start, we provides our team with the outside range that we've lacked (and we're frankly looking for when Dante Curry arrived).  Maynor will continue to get better as moves into this offseason.

C James Vincent - The Oak Tree.  I've been tough on Big James because I've expected more from a 6'10 post player with 54 games played.  Running the numbers, when James has played more than 18 minutes in a game, he averages 7.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.  It's imperative that he gets these kinds of minutes in 2011-12.  I can actually see him playing along side Eric Buckner at points with the proper vision by our next coach.
SF Harold Doby - Untapped talent.  Doby had a frustrating freshman season with inconsistent minutes.  Fans wondered aloud if he got himself into Coach Barnes' dog house or if he was injured as he took 5 DNP-Coach's Decision in 2010-11.  I think Doby could increase his strength and improve his ball handling in the offseason to be a valuable bench contributor in 2011-12.

SG Rashaad Richardson - The question mark.  He was a late addition to the signing class in 2010 and arrived on campus last summer with academic questions. He did not accompany the team to the Bahamas and 5 DNP-CDs in 2010-11.  Should he be on this roster?  I'm not sure as he averaged less than 5 minutes per game in 25 games.  That's amazing to me.  Either play him and see what you have or move him on.  He is a scholarship athlete, not a walk on.  I could argue that he's the most mismanaged player in the Rod Barnes Era.  Richardson could be a candidate to move on this offseason.

Players Who Should Not Return:
PF Jamar Taylor - Taylor is not a Division 1 caliber player.  He should not be on this roster and was an absolute miss in last season's recruiting cycle.  He has to be moved on by the new coach and his scholarship needs to be given to a HS Senior or impact JUCO transfer. 

SF Jordan Demercy - From what I've been told, took a gray shirt in 2010-11 as he sat out his mandatory one year following his transfer from Florida State.  He is not an Impact Player and needs to be cut loose.  Coach Barnes and his staff were high on what Demercy could bring but new coaches are under no obligation to honor previous coaches promises.  Nothing personal but he has proven that he cannot play at a high level after being buried on the Florida State bench. 

Incoming Recruits/Scholarship Situation
Scholarships Available: 2*
Current Signee: PF Jervon Pressley - He was set to be the highest ranked recruit to step foot on campus in the Rod Barnes Era.  Except, he may not step foot on campus.  Yes, he has signed a letter of intent.  Yes, we can hold him to that.  From what I've been told, he has a ton of work to do in the classroom to have a shot to meet eligibility requirements.  If he does, great, he can be an immediate contributor in the post as an athletic rebounder and shot blocker who's offensive game is still developing.  If not*, we can use his scholarship for a player in the late signing period.

My take: I believe the 2010-11 roster was built to win 13-15 games and finish at or near .500 overall and in the CAA.  We did not meet those expectations and our coaching staff will be replaced.  I believe we have the talent on the roster to meet .500 or possibly better if we can hire a coach and a staff that will maximize the strengths of our returning players.  We could have a very large Senior class that has gone through the rigors of the best mid-major conference in America.  I believe we will make the right hire and that they will bring an exciting brand of basketball to the Sports Arena that we have not had since Charles "Lefty" Driesell retired suddenly that late December day.  With the momentum shift in our athletic department, I have high hopes for the future of our basketball program and I believe we have the resources to build a product that competes with VCU, George Mason and Old Dominion in 2011-12.  We are not Senior heavy as many of the top tier teams in our league were this season.  I do not believe that this is the reclamation project that some have said it is. 

Onward and upward!

4 comments:

  1. In re: Richardson.

    It seemed like he had a lot of talent coming out of Oldsmar. Do you think he is not going to be able to translate into the college game? Or do you think he and Doby, they both went Oldsmar after all, got in Barnes' doghouse somehow, someway?

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  2. I agree I liked the film I saw on both players. Too be honest, I think they both fell victim to the same thing: Inconsistent playing time. Barnes was absolutely maddening in some of his sub patterns. Either play them or not. I do not believe in RS a playerin Division 1 basketball unless they have an injury so you needed 8-9 core guys and the others are only called upon if absolutely needed.

    Guys like Taylor, Richardon and Doby likely should have been riding the bench all year but were given small parcels of playing time which I believe did not benefit them.

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  3. Good job.

    Jordan Demercy was a no-show in Richmond or at least I do not remember seeing him. OK for him to stay as a walk-on. Dave Cohen thinks he could be a real contributor because "he fill up the stat sheet." Could be.

    Paraphrased quote on Richardson "won't be playing much this or next season but will later on" He could move on if we have a recruit to take his place. Taylor should be graduating soon so let him move on. He tries hard but just is not up to this level IMHO.

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  4. Thanks Ridge! I wouldn't imagine Demercy making the trip to Richmond. No disrespect to DC but we have plenty of players on our roster who have the ability to fill the stat sheet like Josh Micheaux and Harold Doby. I cannot play Demercy over either one of those guys.

    I could see Richardson moving on and I agree with Taylor. He is likely set to graduate and we do not need to keep a 3rd string player on our roster as a Senior. Scholarships are far too valuable.

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