First let me say this will be a long one as we go into the weekend to face two opponents so there is twice the info to cover. Sit back and enjoy...
The Panthers baseball team will be playing against Iowa and Mississippi State University in the Mississippi State Tournament this weekend. The tournament will feature a double round-robin play system where each team will face each other twice. MSU's Dudy Noble Field acts as the host stadium for the tournament.
GSU will face Iowa on Friday at 12:00 PM, MSU on Saturday at 1:00 PM and Sunday is a doubleheader against Iowa at 12:00 PM and MSU at 3:30 PM.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Iowa Hawkeyes compete in the Big Ten Conference and currently stands at 1-4 on the season. The Hawkeyes finished the 2010 season tied for 3rd in the conference and have bee picked to finish 5th in the 2011 season. This will be the first meeting between the two schools. GSU has faced only one Big Ten school in the past when they defeated Michigan State in 2009.
The Iowa pitching staff is sitting at a 3.20 ERA through the first 5 games giving up 18 runs on the season, 3.6 runs per game. Unfortunately their offense has plated only 12 runs or 2.4 per game and that is a recipe for a bad season.
Probably starters for the Hawkeyes are as follows:
Friday we should see sophomore right hander Ricky Sandquist (6-4, 185). This will be Ricky's 3rd appearance but 1st start in his college career. He is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (1 earned run on 2 hits) after pitching only 1.2 innings so probably still not in his groove. Ricky pitched the 2010 season from the bullpen, appearing 16 times and finishing with a 8.14 ERA through 21 innings pitched. Ricky has a fastball touching the low-90's.
Sunday, Iowa should be sending out sophomore lefty Matt Dermody (6-5, 200). Matt is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA on the season. He has pitched 8.2 innings and allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits with 5 walks and 9 strikeouts. Batters are hitting only .188 against him. Matt was selected by the Pirates in the MLB 2009 Draft (Round 29) with a fastball sitting near 90 with good action. He also has an above-average change-up he can throw to keep hitters off balance.
Now we visit Iowa's problem area. The team is hitting .195 at the plate with no power so far in the 2011 season. They are striking out twice as many times as they're taking walks and they're not stealing many bases. The highest batting average among their starters, .222 and 3RBI's. To have this type of average over the 5-game stretch, you have to assume they're just not seeing the ball well right now as running into 5 hot pitchers in a row is tough to do in college ball.
How do I see the Panthers stacking up against Iowa? With Justin Malone going in the first game against Iowa and Will Campbell in the 2nd, the pitching advantage goes to GSU. Malone has yet to give up a run after 2 starts and 13 innings pitched. Batters are only hitting .239 against him. His walks and hits per inning is below 1.0 at .92. If Malone is on his game, the Iowa lineup will be hard-pressed to get much from him. Even if Malone is twice as bad as his WHIP he's still giving less than 2 hits/walks per inning and because Iowa hasn't shown they like to steal bases, you're not scoring much off that. Will Campbell is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA after also pitching 13 innings. Both pitchers have 6 strikeouts but Campbell has given 6 free bases to hitters. However, Campbell has allowed only 7 hits so his WHIP is sitting exactly at 1.0 and batters are hitting only .175 against him. Iowa will need our pitchers to be off their game in order to score enough runs to win.
Our offense has been somewhat tough to predict due to inconsistent play. They're coming off a recent game of seeing a 6-6 pitcher throwing a fastball in the low-to-mid 90's so seeing the ball should be easy for them. If the guys, especially Mark Micowski, are able to pickup where they left off against Georgia Tech it will be a long day for the Iowa pitchers. The fielders are coming off an excellent game so let's hope that also continues.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The MSU Bulldogs compete in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and currently have a record of 8-1. All games thus far played at home and their lone loss coming against Belmont where they went down by a low score of 1-2. MSU is coming off a 23-33 record on the 2010 season and was picked to finish sixth in the SEC Western Division for 2011. GSU has not fared well against SEC opponents in the past, under Coach Frady they are 0-10 but have not yet faced the MSU Diamond Dogs.
The MSU pitching staff is giving up an average of 2 runs per game this season and the offense is scoring a little over 8, thus their 8-1 record.
The probable starters are currently unknown so here's a rundown on their whole staff. The team ERA currently sits at 2.00. Their starters are 5-1 in their 9 games played. They have only one pitcher who has given up more than 3 runs total on the season, Chad Girodo who has started 1 game and appeared in 2 and given up 4 runs in 6 innings. The team is striking out batters and not giving much for walks, their team WHIP is .86. That's low folks. GSU compares at 1.1 which is also low but obviously MSU is doing better here. I know we will NOT see starter Devin Jones as he starts Friday for MSU against Iowa. This is a break for GSU as Jones has thrown 15 innings and given up only 2 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks.
MSU is currently 2nd in the SEC in team batting average at .338. They have hit 7 home runs and are 11-for-16 in stolen bases. They're slugging .480, their extra base hits are accounting for about 1-of-4 total hits. GSU is doing better here hitting about 2-of-5 for extra bases. MSU appears to be patient at the plate as they have one more walk than strikeout as a team.
It's worth noting that MSU has played clean defense through their first 9 games. They've only committed 4 errors, showing off a .988 fielding percentage.
I think MSU has benefited from their early season schedule and will likely be brought back to Earth once SEC play begins for them. The SEC currently holds 7 of the 30 spots in Collegiate Baseball Newspaper's Top 30, 4 being in the top 10. However, these two games will be an excellent test for Georgia State and will show the Panthers where they are as a program.
GSU will be sending Nick Squeglia and Charley Olsen to the mound against MSU. Nick is 1-0 through 2 starts and has not given up a run in his 11 innings pitched. He has a WHIP of .63 and batters are hitting only .135 against him. It's hard not to love your chances with numbers like that going to the mound. Charley is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA. Charley was the victim of a mad Western Illinois batting lineup and a messy defensive effort by the Panthers. He's given up 5 runs but only 2 earned in 8.2 innings. Charley appeared in relief during the Mercer game and has set down 8 batters by way of strikeout.
Without knowing the MSU starting pitchers it's tough to call how we'll do against them. I think the pitching matchups will be key here. Right now, I would say going 1-1 against them is likely considering who is not and should not be starting for them. I feel good with Nick and Charley on the mound for GSU. The performance of the entire GSU pitching staff has been nothing short of outstanding so that's a big confidence booster for the team. About the Panthers offense, again, they're coming off a great game. If they're able to continue the momentum they should be fine. It's safe to say they won't be facing a pitcher with greater potential than Matt Grimes (Georgia Tech starter) during this weekend and they were able to put 4 runs on him. Mark Micowski, Brett Maxwell and Brandon Williams all had multi-hit games against Tech on Wednesday.
Good luck to Coach Frady and his team during this tournament. Splitting with MSU at Dudy Noble would be a great follow-up to beating Georgia Tech at Russ Chandler.
***UPDATE***
Possible starter for game 1 versus MSU is right hand sophomore Chris Stratton. Chris was selected to the SEC All-Freshman Team in 2010 and was a weekend starter for MSU as a freshman. He's off to a blazing start this season with similar numbers to his GSU counterpart Nick Squeglia.
ERA: Nick 0.00 / Chris 0.00
W-L: Nick 1-0 in 2 games / Chris 2-0 in 2 games
Innings Pitched: Nick 11 / Chris 13.2
WHIP: Nick 0.63 / Chris 0.83
Opposing Batting Average: Nick .135 / Chris .200
Extra Base Hits Allowed: Nick 0 / Chris 2
Here is the difference, Nick has 5 strikouts and Chris has struck out 23 of 50 batters faced. Wow. That's almost 2 per inning based on his innings pitched. According to his coach, Chris has a 92 mph fastball that he's able to locate well almost all the time. He also has a "big, slow breaking curve." Apparently he's also mature beyond his years. Those are all the same things said about the pitcher just faced in Matt Grimes.
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