Georgia State vs. South Alabama - Preview & Prediction

Georgia State vs. South Alabama

Kickoff: 5:00pm Ladd Peebles Stadium

Radio: WCFO 1160 AM, WRAS 88.5

Venerable Ladd Peebles Stadium.  Home of the Senior Bowl.  And of South Alabama's 1st Ever Loss

Quick Slant: The Panthers play their 2nd road game in a row and come off a 34-20 loss vs. Old Dominion. South Alabama is coming off a come from behind victory in California over UC Davis. Much has been made about the South Alabama-Georgia State rivalry and for good reason, both teams & fan bases have been paying attention to each other. The Panthers will aim to hand the Jaguars their first ever loss in the history of their program.

About South Alabama: South Alabama is 7-0 (3-0 vs. FCS opponents) on the season and is on the fast track for FBS. After loading their 2009 schedule with mlitary academies, prep schools and junior colleges, they've only slightly increased the level of competition in 2010 by playing all 4 year schools. They rotate 3 QBs but will start 6'3, 210lbs Myles Gibbon. All 3 QBs are adequate passers and have combined for 193 yards per game and 12 passing TDs on the season. The Jags primary option is 6'5, 230lbs. WR Courtney Smith who has caught 23 passes for 371 yards and 5 TDs. The Jaguars would prefer to run the ball however and have done so with 5'10, 180lbs Kendall Houston and 5'10, 170lbs Santaun McGee who between them go for nearly 100 yards per game. Due to the blowouts vs. lesser competition, they've allowed 13 players to run the ball. They've only averaged 21 passes per game so I'd be shocked if they don't make running the ball a priority.


What to Watch:
1) Can the Panthers stop the run? ODU was able to run 43 times for 229 yards and 3 TDs. That's not going to cut it vs. the Jaguars who have capable running backs.


2) Can the Panthers take advantage of a small defensive front? The Panthers face the 3rd smallest front weighing nearly 100lbs lighter then the ODU defensive front. The offensive line should be able to blow holes and move the pile after being pushed around in Richmond.


3) Can the Panthers continue to play great vs. the pass? ODU threw 38 times for 152 yards. That's tremendous pass coverage and not giving up the big play. DB Coach Anthony Midget has mentioned that the training wheels have to come off his young DBs. I'm not buying that more than motivational coach speak. We'll continue to roll coverage towards smith and keep plays underneath.


Georgia State Wins If...
They can hold onto the football. The Panthers have no been stopped by an opposing defense in weeks. Critical penalties, mental errors and fumbles have derailed scoring chances. I'm confident that if the Panthers can withstand the initial emotional punch that South Alabama gives that they can execute and move up and down the field.


South Alabama Wins If...
They are patient and force turnovers. They have a +11 TO margin. Yes, CBC is impressed with that. I look at the schedule they've played. They will not hit big play after big play but want to drop short passes and turn the field over.


Georgia State Checklist:
1) Pound the football - The Panthers could not move the football vs. ODU on the ground but thrashed them through the air as Drew Little went north of 400 yards with no INTs. The Pistol formation was good in spurts and I'd imagine we will see more of that. I fully expect a better offensive line performance and 38+ runs on the ground to force the safeties in and allow Drew to go deep.


2) Make the Jaguars uncomfortable - ODU admitted last week that they were confused by Coach Thompson's defense and it forced a veteran QB to take short throws because he had no where else to go. Missed tackles contributed to bigger gains. With an OL that averages 279lbs., I see many more blitzing opportunities by the Panthers D. Rattle the QBs and the rotations may stop quickly.

3) Continue to throw the football down the field - Drew has gone 189 passes without an INT. That's phenomenal and Coach Curry is a little uncomfortable talking about as he equates it to talking about a pitcher throwing a no hitter in the 7th inning. The WRs and RBs have done a great job catching the ball but have fumbled medium and long gains. I expect that to get fixed and there to be multiple opportunies to exploit the Jag's CBs who will be left on an island early.


The Roar
South Alabama may welcome its largest crowd of the year as Alabama is on a BYE and Auburn plays at Ole Miss. While noise wasn't an issue this past weekend in Norfolk, I expect the Panthers to hear a little louder atmosphere at Ladd Peebles. Glad the coaching staff continued to pumped in crowd noise to practice this week. South Alabama features 10 players from Georgia on its 2 deep and it's likely that some may have been recruiting targets of both schools. The game is being billed as a "White Out" with South Alabama fans wearing all white. The Panthers will be wearing their home blue jerseys and white pants for the first time in an opponent's building.

Prediction: Georgia State 21, South Alabama 17