Monday, November 2, 2009

Best 2009-10 Men's BBall Preview I've Seen

Georgia State Panthers
Last Season 12-20 (.375)
Conference Record 8-10 (8th)
Starters Lost/Returning 2/3
Coach Rod Barnes (Ole Miss '88)
Record At School 21-41 (2 years)
Career Record 162-150 (10 years)
RPI Last 5 years 161-238-232-283-230

COACH AND PROGRAMGeorgia State's season last year was a lot like a pot of chili: there were a lot of active ingredients that needed time to blend -- five transfers and two freshmen dotted the roster and held down a majority of the playing time.

The Panthers weren't a culinary delight early. In fact, they entered February with only three wins over Division I opponents. But by the time everything cooked down, the end result was pretty darned tasty. They won five of their final seven games, and the only two losses were to conference champion VCU.

"Our biggest problem was that we thought our seniors would play better early," said coach Rod Barnes, a former national coach of the year at Ole Miss. "It took longer to jell because it didn't give the other guys an opportunity to get into a rhythm."

PLAYERS
It's a shame more people don't see third-team All-CAA selection Joe Dukes (12.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.3 apg,) more often. The 6-1 senior is the kind of player you enjoy watching because he impacts the game on every level, on every possession.

Dukes led the Panthers in scoring, assists, minutes, and steals, and he was second on the team in rebounding. He prefers a power midrange game but can also shoot it from deep -- he hit 35 percent of his threes last year (25-of-72).

He may not garner the attention other guards in the conference do, but Dukes is every bit the player. His "problem" is that he is a coach's dream: his first priority is what Barnes needs to help the Panthers win.

"I told him we need him to be more assertive, more selfish," Barnes said. "Part of the problem last year was that he was trying to fit in and we didn't need him to fit in, we needed him to be the guy, to take a strong leadership role."

Trae Goldston (10.8 ppg, 1.7 apg, 1.5 rpg) is a cat-quick southpaw who, for the second straight season, was the Panthers' second leading scorer. The 6-1 senior carries an assassin's confidence and the shot to go with it. Goldston buried a three in the waning seconds to beat both Old Dominion and UNC Wilmington last year.In fact, the deep ball is Goldston's specialty. He is a career 39 percent marksman from behind the line, and an 82 percent free-throw shooter to boot.

"We want Trae to expand his game a little bit and not rely on the three-point shot," Barnes said.
"When defenders close out, he needs to put it on the deck and penetrate to pitch it or pull up from 15 feet."

The player that could change the season for Barnes is Trey Hampton (4.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg). The 6-7 senior was first on the team and 10th in the CAA in blocked shots (27) and is an athletic and tough player. Hampton connected on 48 percent from the field and is willing to get after it on the offensive end (40 offensive rebounds).

The change? Consistency and a little selfishness. Hampton blitzed UNC Wilmington with 12 points, 10 rebounds, three steals, an assist and a block last season. Barnes would love to see a little more of that.

"I get his back against the wall when I don't play him and he comes out and plays well, but then thinks 'hey I'm doing all right,' " Barnes said. "We need him to consistently score 10, 12, 8, 14 points; not 25 one night and four the next."

This is especially important for Barnes, because prized recruit Rashanti Harris will not step onto the Georgia State campus until at least December. The team will need a rebounder on the blocks, which is Harris's forte.

If he does show in December, Harris will need to blend with the team, not just in practice but in games. However Harris is a top 30 recruit with a devastating fierceness to rebound and a high motor. There is no doubt that his addition will be a boon to the Panthers, much a like baseball team picking up a prized starting pitcher in July.

If not Hampton or Harris, junior Dante Curry (6.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.0 spg) could be the difference-maker. Curry is an athletic 6-5 guard who can shoot and drive, which al-lows him to score in bunches. He has range (.350, 28-of-80 3PT) and is fearless -- he poured in 18 points in the defining game of the season, a February win at Northeastern. Oddly, he was just 17-of-33 (.515) from the free-throw line.Curry, a transfer from USF, battled a sore Achilles that limited his effectiveness all season. He stopped attacking the basket and settled for jump shots, but Barnes says he has a better all-around game than he showed.

Xavier Hansbro (4.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg), is a 6-10 senior and confusing talent. Hansbro has an array of post moves and is comfortable stepping out to the three-point line (11-of-50 from beyond the arc last season). Hansbro dropped 16 points against Bowling Green in his first GSU game, and repeated the effort against George Mason but reached double figures only two other times all season.

The confusion is figuring out how to turn it on and off.

Lanky, elbows-everywhere Ousman Krubally (2.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg) is a fun player to watch if only because he plays at one speed: full tilt. The 6-6 senior is a former walk-on and a fan favorite. He is also an effective offensive rebounder and defender -- he took three charges against Florida State.

Though he scores mainly on stick-backs and tip-ins (.660, 33-of-50 FG), Krubally can't be left alone. He averaged 9.0 points and 5.8 rebounds during GSUs late-season four-game streak. His free-throw accuracy is part of the legend -- Krubally was 15-of 34 (.440) last year.Sophomore James Fields (2.3 ppg, 1.0 apg, 1.1 rpg) is a big 6-3 guard who will primarily back up Dukes at point. Fields is one of the better defenders on the team, which may earn him additional floor time.

Kevin Lott (2.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg) is a 6-7 senior who gets farther from the basket with every game he plays. Lott came to GSU a post player, but he's drifted out to the three-point line as his career progressed. He took only one three his freshman season. Last year 12 of his 19 made field goals were threes, and Lott seldom strayed from the arc. The reduction in aggressiveness led to a reduction in production and thus playing time.

Redshirt sophomore Jihad Ali (3.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg in 2007-08) played his freshman season but chose to redshirt last year. The 6-5 lefty showed an all-around game in his first year. He hit 11 threes and contributed 26 assists, 16 steals and nine blocked shots.

Marques Johnson is a 6-5 junior guard on his third team. He transferred to GSU from NC State, by way of Tennessee. He played in only four games for Tennessee (2.0 ppg, 1.3 apg) before moving on to NC State, where his stats weren't much better in one season (2.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.2 apg). Johnson can play both guard spots and might have finally found the level of D-I where he can fill a consistent role.

Barnes has added three newcomers along with Harris that will vie for time. Mi'Kyel Nero is a 6-4 sophomore who plays out on the wing. He's from Brunswick (N.C.) Community College, where last season he averaged 10.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists.

Nero's teammate at Brunswick, 6-9 junior Jamar Taylor, is more of a banger. He averaged 8.1 points and 6.7 rebounds as a sophomore.

Barnes rounded out the roster with more size, 6-10, 230-pound freshman James Vincent. He's
from Northside High School in Columbus, Ga., where last season he averaged 15 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks.

BLUE RIBBON ANALYSIS
BACKCOURT: B
BENCH/DEPTH: B
FRONTCOURT: B
INTANGIBLES: B

Barnes will kick up the tempo. The Panthers were not a bad shooting team, didn't turn the ball over a great amount, and weren't terrible rebounders. However they still finished last in the conference in scoring (60.3 ppg). What's worse, Georgia State took the second fewest number of free throws and was the league's worst free-throw shooting team at 61.6
percent.

"We don't get enough attempts," Barnes said. "We're going to change. We've got to play a faster pace."

But Barnes has the continuity of a veteran team that played together last season. Take the momentum generated from last year and add the new ingredient to the mix, and the Panthers could be serving dinner earlier this season.

At worst, though, Barnes has already delivered a very important ingredient to rebuilding the Georgia State program last season: Hope.

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