"20K in the Dome? I can dig it."
Photo Courtesy of Mouthpeicesports.com
I've been asked several times the last few days on the likelihood and % chance that we reach 20,000 in average attendance. I’ve decided to throw my thoughts together as it seems that Football Withdrawal has officially taken hold. Like one of my favorite sports interviewees, Shaquille O’Neal said, “I’m not an Odds-Matician.”
First, our attendance average this season for 7 games was 16,750.
Let me stop right there. That's tremendous. How tremendous? That's a better average than 13 FBS programs.
The soft season ticket renewal has already begun (if you haven't received a call, call the ticket office and they'd be glad to assist you) and full season ticket renewal will begin in January.
So what's the magic formula? If you are looking for that, you won't find it here. I don't have that. What I do have is my thoughts on what is possible in 2011.
We will graduate an estimated 3000 students in total in our December and April commencement ceremonies. These all become potential ticket purchasers at a minimum of $72 per ticket for the season or $15 per ticket for individual single games. I'll aim extremely conservative and say we grab 10% of these new grads. That's 300 new season ticket holders.
We will enroll an estimated 2000 transfer students (including many this January) who will be entering in the beginnings of Year 2. Again, conservatively I'll say we can attract 15% giving us 300 in the student section.
It's estimated that more than 3500 freshman will arrive on campus in August to begin classes. Using my 10% model again, let's add 350 additional bodies into the Georgia Dome next season.
A little further outside the campus lines, our season ticket base, which is currently more than 5500, is to increase and I'll again be very conservative and say 10%. That would be a additional 550 season ticket holders.
Average fan interest is extremely hard to judge. How big of impact did the Alabama game resonate in potential donors/season ticket holders? Nearly impossible to register but I will stay conservative and say that we receive an additional 1,500 fans per game next season by this factor alone.
Last, but not least, is adding local players. We are expected to sign a very small class (currently would be 8 or 9 and could blossom to 10 to 12 with attrition) but the adding of the family members alone from those 8-12 players could result in an extra 25 fans in the building.
So let's total my projections up and you have an increase of 3,725 in attendance giving us a total of 20,475. That would push us over 20K and would move us from 9th to 4th in all of FCS in only 2 years of existence. Could we achieve this? Yes. Will we? That remains to be seen.
